Without a preferred candidate, will blacks go to polls?

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Democrats Face Turnout Challenge

Without a preferred candidate, will blacks go to polls?

When New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, after a long public tease, did not qualify to run for governor, the relief felt by the three non-Republican candidates was mixed with concern over whether African-American voters will even show up at the polls on Oct. 20.

Though Bobby Jindal's campaign manager predicted a runoff this week, Republicans remained fixed on their goal of a primary victory based on a higher turnout among conservative whites relative to blacks.

While African-Americans make up 29 percent of registered voters, they only accounted for 26 percent of the electorate in the 2003 governor's runoff, due to a 45 percent turnout among blacks compared to 54 percent among whites.

With the disproportionate loss of black residents from the 2005 hurricanes, that nine-point turnout differential could widen, making it harder to keep Jindal below 50 percent.

So far, black voters have not shown a strong preference for either Democrats Walter Boasso or Foster Campbell or independent John Georges. It remains to be seen who will make the strongest pitch for that vote.

What Candidates Offer, Lack

Campbell has the most populist message and landed the singular endorsement of the Louisiana Federation of Teachers this week. He also was successful in getting the early support of some black legislators and other officials. Yet he is having trouble raising money past the $1 million mark, and so likely won't have the resources to fund a strong turnout operation in black communities.

Boasso has the money, but the former Republican has a more conservative voting record that could dampen enthusiastic support among blacks. His consultant Michael Beychok said the campaign will announce some major endorsements by black officials soon.

There is no indication of whether or whom Nagin might endorse, or if any of the candidates would welcome his public support. If it takes him as long to decide on an endorsement as it did on his candidacy, it won't matter.

The wild card could be Georges, who, according to sources, has already sent mailers into the black community--touting his hiring record of minorities--and will fund an aggressive get-out-the-vote effort, particularly in his New Orleans home.

Scattered legislative races in minority districts and the citywide City Council special election in New Orleans might help turnout there, but observers see little interest so far. The same is true, with some exceptions, in black communities across the state. Shreveport is indicative of the lethargy in that the hottest election campaign at this point is for coroner.

Vitter's Public Ordeal Not Over Yet

The best news for Sen. David Vitter this week was that the story of the prostitute who claimed an affair with him passing a polygraph test did not make it into the Washington Post or New York Times.

State papers, especially the Times-Picayune, reported on Wendy Ellis' news conference with Hustler Magazine publisher Larry Flynt. Yet polls show state voters are satisfied with the junior senator's non-specific apology.

Vitter's job performance brought him better press this week with word that the White House, at his urging, now backs cutting $1 billion from the state match for $7.8 billion in additional levee upgrades in the New Orleans area. That would still leave the state on the hook for $1.7 billion, which Gov. Blanco termed unaffordable but still a positive step in negotiations.

Yet the ice could get thinner for Vitter in Washington, especially after GOP calls for the resignation of Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho, arrested for public lewdness in an airport restroom, raised questions of unequal treatment.

Vitter still could be called to testify in the trial of accused Washington madam Jeane Palfrey, after phone records linked him to her escort service. Also, Hustler plans to publish an interview and photo spread on Ellis in its January issue.

At that point, another changed factor in Vitter's fortunes could be a newly elected Republican governor here, which might make him more expendable to GOP congressional leaders anxious to get the scandals behind them.

High-Tech Military Command Coming to Barksdale

A major new Air Force command is coming to Barksdale Air Force Base in Bossier City, with thousands of high-tech industry jobs to follow in coming years.

A formal announcement of the placement of the Air Force's Cyber Warfare Command will come in Washington next Tuesday, according to Jimmy Hall, city attorney for Bossier City and point man of the local effort to win the designation. The command's mission will be to protect the government and economy from electronic terrorism and to use cyber technology as a military weapon.

"We're ecstatic about it," said Hall. "We're moving at the speed of light now." The city and Bossier Parish have committed $50 million to build an adjacent Cyber Innovation Center to attract businesses to develop military and commercial applications. The Legislature this year appropriated $50 million to build Interstate and state highway interchanges going to the center and the Air Force base.

Hall said the new command and the innovation center could be operational in late 2009 and that a projected 10,000 military and commercial jobs could follow over the next three to five years.

On Wednesday, Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne surprised guests, including Sen. Mary Landrieu, at a dinner celebrating the service's 60th anniversary by announcing "the interim command of Cyber Command right here, provisionally."

Hall said the words "interim" and "provisional" mean, in government-speak, that the Air Force is starting the process to transfer support to the new command. Barksdale already hosted a cyber mission but was in competition with an Air Force base in Nebraska for the national command.

Republicans Launch Attack Ad on Alario

The state Republican Party is airing a commercial that attacks former House Speaker John Alario, D-Westwego, who is running for the Senate.

Consultant Jay Connaughton said its opposition to Alario will be the party's "No. 2 campaign in the state" in terms of funding, behind the governor's race.

The spot shows smoke rising over Alario's name, with the voice-over saying the veteran legislator has been ordered before grand juries, named an unindicted co-conspirator and had his office wire-tapped by the FBI.

"Hasn't he done enough for us?" concludes the commercial, which doesn't mention Alario's GOP opponent John Roberts Jr. Roberts was recruited to run by party chairman Roger Villere, despite leading Jefferson Parish Republicans backing Alario for his effectiveness.

Challenge to Cleo Fields Doesn't Affect Waddell, Yet

Voters challenging the candidacy of Sen. Cleo Fields, D-Baton Rouge, on constitutional term-limits grounds don't expect a sympathetic ear in district court today. Presiding is District Judge Don Johnson, whose rulings shredded, then dismissed, the bribery case against Agriculture Commissioner Bob Odom.

The decisive ruling is expected to come early next week from the First Circuit Court of Appeal. Following that, the state Supreme Court can accept writs or not.

An interested observer in the outcome is state Rep. Wayne Waddell, R-Shreveport, who is in the same term-limits gray area as Fields but not in the same boat. Because no voter in Waddell's district challenged his qualification, he was elected unopposed.

It was Waddell's predicament that prompted former state Rep. Peppi Bruneau, R-New Orleans, to amend his 2006 election code bill to provide that, for term-limits purposes, a legislator's service does not begin until he or she is sworn in at the start of the legislative session. That would push the service of Fields and Waddell, both elected in late 1997 special elections, into the second half of the legislative term and thus allow them to run three more times.

When his bill reached the Senate, Bruneau and Republicans were surprised to learn the legislation also applied to Fields.

Waddell is not totally in the clear. If the plaintiffs win their case and Fields is blocked from running, Waddell's seating next year could be challenged by another House member and voted on by the full body.

Five New Legislators Elected Without a Vote

It has happened before but never five times in one cycle, when that many first-time legislators were elected unopposed at the end of qualifying last week.

The only new senator elected unopposed came from the House. Rep. Dale Erdey, R-Livingston, who stepped up when Sen. Clo Fontenot, R-Livingston, announced the week before he would not seek re-election.

The new House members reflect two party changes that cancel each other out.

Democrat Mike Danahy of Sulphur succeeds Republican Ronnie Johns, who backed Danahy. "We ran a campaign no matter what," said the Calcasieu police juror who is a sales rep for an office supply firm.

Attorney Patrick Connick, a Harvey Republican, won the seat held by Democrat N.J. Damico, who also backed the winner. The younger brother of Jefferson District Attorney Paul Connick and nephew of former New Orleans District Attorney Harry Connick said he formed his political support through the men's clubs of church parishes on the West Bank.

Democrat Simone Champagne of Jeanerette, replacing Democratic Senate candidate Troy Hebert, D-Jeanerette, had a Republican opponent who dropped out early. She comes from local government, having resigned in January as chief administrative officer for Iberia Parish. Her first run for public office was made smoother by having helped many other candidates over the years.

In Ville Platte, Democrat Bernard Labas, a pharmacist, talked to only one prospective opponent, who then pulled out. He replaces his neighbor Rep. Eric Lafleur, D-Ville Platte, who is running for the Senate.

Republican Greg Cromer moves from the Slidell City Council to the House seat being vacated by GOP Senate candidate Pete Schneider. The engineer with Lockheed Martin has hired outgoing Sen. Tom Schedler's legislative assistant and has contacted prospective House leaders to lobby for a seat on the Transportation Committee. "The early bird gets the worm," he said.

The senior House member of the unopposed caucus is Rep. Chuck Kleckley, R-Lake Charles, who has not had opposition in his two elections.

Blanco Not Blocking GO Zone Bond Approvals

Despite earlier talk of blocking approvals, the Blanco administration is not standing in the way of GO Zone bonds approved by the Bond Commission to finance private developments in south Louisiana.

But a power struggle is brewing over which projects will be financed in the administration's waning months, with only enough remaining allocation to cover less than half the value of projects applied for.

This week, the governor okayed 12 projects that had received Bond Commission final approval, thus averting a possible legal challenge to her contention that she had the final say on $7.8 billion in low-cost financing provided by Congress. The Commission has given final approval to $4.6 billion in projects, though not all of them have moved to closing.

The administration will still propose a new scoring system at next week's Bond Commission meeting for the remaining allocation. The Blanco administration is trying to set aside a large portion for the New Orleans area, where the slow recovery and high insurance costs have impeded projects there.

Among the projects that could get left out is a planned $100 million plant for Coca-Cola, which chose Baton Rouge over a Mississippi site based on securing GO Zone bonds.

Senate Race Is About Finding Voters

Even more so than New Orleans, the race in Senate District 1 (St. Bernard and parts of Plaquemines and St. Tammany) is about finding displaced voters.

The Katrina effect has turned the district upside down, from having 67 percent of votes south of Lake Pontchartrain to 58 percent on the north. Even before the storm, the gerrymandered district now held by gubernatorial candidate Walter Boasso was a daunting campaign challenge, stretching 144 miles from Pearl River to the mouth of the Mississippi.

The voter flip gives a distinct advantage to the only Northshore candidate, Rep. A.G. Crowe, R-Slidell. He faces Rep. Ken Odinet, D-Chalmette, who was forced to move his home and office to the Northshore, and St. Bernard Parish Councilman Joey Di Fatta, a Republican.

Crowe has been endorsed by the executive committee of the state Republican Party over Di Fatta, who miffed GOP leaders when he endorsed Democratic Congressman Charlie Melancon for re-election.

They Said It

"It's just a continuous drip of information, allegations, contradictions that are beyond his control."

--Political analyst Silas Lee on Sen. David Vitter, to AP

"I am not thrilled to spend the last months of my administration begging for money."

--Gov. Kathleen Blanco on seeking up to $5 billion more from Congress for her Road Home program, in the Lafayette Advertiser

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